软件业「崩盘」？不，是 Anthropic 把程序员变成了产品经理

中文版

二月的华尔街经历了一场 $8300 亿美元的软件股大屠杀。HubSpot 跌了 39%，Figma 跌了 40%，Atlassian 和 Shopify 也没能幸免。罪魁祸首？Anthropic 的 Claude Code 和 Cowork。

Claude Code 的创造者 Boris Cherny 说得很直白：「到今年年底，所有人都会是产品经理，所有人都会写代码。『软件工程师』这个头衔会消失。」更扎心的是，Anthropic 内部现在 100% 的代码都是 AI 写的，Cherny 自己从去年 11 月起就没手动改过一行代码。

但冷静点。这真的是「崩盘」吗？数据显示，开发者 60% 的工作用上了 AI，但能完全交给 AI 的任务只有不到 20%。换句话说，AI 提高了生产力，但还远没到让人类下岗的地步。

最讽刺的是：一边预言「软件工程师将消失」，Anthropic 一边还在大量招聘软件工程师。所以到底是 AI 革命，还是又一轮科技圈的「狼来了」？

我的看法？软件业没有崩盘，只是角色在变。写代码的门槛降低了，但判断写什么、为什么写的价值反而更高了。程序员不会消失，只是那些「只会写代码」的程序员，确实该焦虑了。

English Version

February saw Wall Street's $830 billion software stock massacre. HubSpot down 39%, Figma down 40%, Atlassian and Shopify didn't escape either. The culprit? Anthropic's Claude Code and Cowork.

Boris Cherny, creator of Claude Code, was blunt: "By year-end, everyone will be a product manager, everyone codes. The 'software engineer' title will start to disappear." More brutal: Anthropic now has 100% of its code written by AI, and Cherny himself hasn't manually edited a single line since November.

But let's pause. Is this really a "collapse"? Data shows developers use AI in 60% of their work, but tasks that can be fully delegated to AI account for less than 20%. Translation: AI boosts productivity, but we're nowhere near human obsolescence.

The irony? While predicting "software engineers will vanish," Anthropic is actively hiring software engineers. So is this an AI revolution, or just another tech industry "boy who cried wolf" moment?

My take? The software industry isn't collapsing—roles are evolving. The barrier to writing code has lowered, but the value of deciding what to build and why has only increased. Programmers won't disappear, but those who "only know how to code"? Yeah, they should probably worry.

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